Tariff Thursdays – US vs China: Weekly Risk Analysis (May 22–29, 2025)

Who's Hurting - and Where?

Overview

After a volatile spring, the United States and China are entering this week under a fragile trade truce. A 90-day tariff reprieve is in effect, rolling back punitive duties imposed in April and temporarily easing tensions. However, tariffs remain dramatically higher than a year ago – average U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods are about 51%, with China’s averaging 32% on U.S. goods – and 100% of bilateral trade is still subject to some tariff. Both economies are grappling with decoupling pressures, and companies on each side are recalibrating supply chains. Below, we break down the sector-by-sector impacts of U.S. tariffs on China and vice versa, analyze key risk factors via quantitative risk equations, and provide market predictions and forecasts through May 29, 2025.